The escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine makes it increasingly likely that a new wave of refugees will arrive in Poland this winter. It is currently estimated that up to 800 thousand Ukrainian refugees could enter Poland during the coming months. This is happening at a time when the Polish government is further reducing the financial support provided for Ukrainian refugees.
Since the outbreak of the war, around two-thirds of the estimated 3 million refugees to have fled Ukraine have crossed into Poland. Around 1.38 million of these have sought temporary protection in Poland and an estimated 1 million remain in the country. About 70 percent of these refugees are active on the labour market, with around 400,000 currently employed.
With Poland undergoing an economic downturn, many Ukrainian refugees face an increasingly uncertain future. At the beginning of the war, the Polish population mobilised impressively to help Ukrainians, with huge numbers of refugees accommodated in private homes. However, the Polish government had placed the main burden of housing refugees on individuals, rather than providing more sustainable solutions themselves. Also, the arrival of large numbers of refugees has further exposed how many public services are underfunded. For example, around 200,000 Ukrainian children have started attending Polish schools since the start of the war, at a time when Polish schools already face a severe shortage of teachers.
In conditions of economic uncertainty and falling living standards, individual Polish citizens are unable to provide the long-term help needed for these refugees. Rather than the government increasing its investment in public services (such as housing, education and health) to meet growing demand, it is reducing the already inadequate help that refugees receive.
From July the government stopped providing refugees with the 40 złoty daily allowance given to those staying in private accommodation. Now the government is proposing that from 1 February 2023, refugees who will have been in Poland for more than 120 days will have to pay 50 percent of the cost of collective accommodation themselves; and from 1 May 2023 those who will have been in the country for more than 180 days must cover 75 percent of these costs.
With the government prioritising raising military spending above economic and social investment, so the situation of Ukrainian refugees in Poland could worsen. The far-right is attempting to build hostility towards refugees and unfairly blame them for the increasing hardships facing Polish society, connected to rising inflation and soaring energy bills.
